| | The sort of business
bore who's into boiling
frogs and filling
glasses half-full will
often tell you that the
Chinese word for
"crisis" is made up of
the words for "danger"
and "opportunity". Well,
so it does, sort of, but
I'm reliably informed
that it could equally
well be translated as
"precarious moment"
which isn't going to
impress anyone.
What you get when you
combine the Chinese
characters for
"stability" and
"opportunity" I don't
know. I suspect it might
come out as "startlingly
dull", as "stability and
opportunity" also
happens to be the title
of this year's Budget
report.
You've all probably
forgotten this already,
given that it was a few
weeks and about eight
financial
"danger/opportunities"
ago. I know very few
people read the Budget
report and therefore get
the impression from the
papers that it's
something to do with
tax.
According to the
Report, however, it's
about "building a
strong, sustainable
future". I have no idea
what this means either.
"Sustainable" is in
there, because
everything these days | |
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| | opportunity for all",
"stronger communities"
and "an environmentally
sustainable world". Who
says this man Darling is
boring? Give him another
year and he'll be
"seeking out new life
and civilisations" and
"boldly going where
no-one has gone before"
(although this will
probably be the chapter
covering revisions to
VAT rebates for loft
insulation).
Would the Tories rip
this budget apart? They
did their best, but it
was a bit like watching
a man wrestle a
blancmange.
"This government and
this prime minister took
all the credit when the
global economy was
growing, but now there
are difficulties and
they will not take any
of the blame," said
David Cameron, proving
that he has grasped at
least the basics of
being in power. He could
have gone further and
said something like,
"the Chancellor and the
Prime Minister have no
more control over the
direction of this
country's economy than a
snail sitting on top of
a tortoise, no less than
the ant sitting on top
of the snail sitting on
top of the tortoise" but
then he would have had
to end the sentence "...
and neither will my
Chancellor and I".
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In fact the most
decisive action open to
the Chancellor – and one
which he seized with
both hands – was to
write to the Governor of
the Bank of England
urging him to keep to
the good old 2%
inflation target (cue
hollow laughter from
anyone who's recently
opened a council tax
demand or a utility
bill). This must be a
great comfort to
everyone on the Monetary
Policy Committee, as
they stare glumly at the
two buttons marked
"Destroy economy with
high interest rates" and
"Destroy economy with
runaway inflation".
The sad truth is,
that as far as
government intervention
goes, we've sort of run
out of options. Money
has been poured into the
public sector, but this
has gone as much to ramp
up the salary and
pension commitment (and
to create a hefty voting
bloc at election time)
as to refresh our
infrastructure. For the
consultancy industry,
the last few years have
been a mixed blessing:
normally financial
services-led private
sector work and public
sector investment fire
alternatively. This time
they've been working in
tandem, leading to
unprecedented pressure
on resources, which has | |
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| | fed through salaries
into reduced margins.
Now would be a very
good time for a
Chancellor to give the
economy a boost by
lighting the blue touch
paper under a programme
of public sector
transformation. But most
of the fireworks in that
box have already been
let off. There's still a
long tail of
transformation work to
complete, but what
happens after that?
Not that we can
complain too much – it's
been a good run and
hopefully (unlike the
Chancellor) we all have
a little something
tucked away for a rainy
day.
There is of course, a
huge opportunity for the
Chancellor – and
consultants – in a
serious assault on
efficiency in the public
sector. But even the
Opposition are fighting
shy of antagonising the
public sector unions in
the run-up to an
election.
So we stick with our
"stability opportunity",
which in the current
context seems to mean
ensuring that the bow
and the stern of the
Titanic hit the seabed
at the same time.
Come to think of it,
isn't
"stability/opportunity"
the Chinese for "frozen
in the headlights"?
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| | has sustainable not
least our ability to pay
all that tax until the
next election (and for
at least the next four
years, promises shadow
chancellor George
Osborne, presumably in a
doomed attempt to avoid
being handed the real
job in the middle of the
worst economic doo-doo
for 20 years). As for
"strong", well it sounds
good, even if not
committing one to
anything definite like
"prosperous" or even
"happy". (What happened
to the Happiness Czar,
by the way?)
For that sort of
thing you have to delve
deep into the fantasy
world of the report
itself, or at least the
increasingly utopian
chapter headings that
have become the norm in
such things.
Last year all we were
offered was "a fairer
society" and a
commitment to
"protecting the
environment". This
year's tinkering –
"economic and fiscal
strategy" promises,
"fairness and | |
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